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+ | ====== Alternativní jednoduché modely ====== | ||
+ | ... a o matematických modelech obecně | ||
+ | > HgIS pomáhá formulovat alternativní koncepční modely a umožňuje implementovat jednoduché procedurální (tj. výpočetní) modely. Prezentované [[casestudies|]] je možné implementovat a zobrazovat v HgIS, přičemž se výsledky aktualizují na základě nových dat. | ||
+ | > Navíc platforma Pentaho umožňuje((plugin [[hitachi> | ||
+ | |||
+ | <WRAP box> | ||
+ | ===== Mé životní dílo o alternativních jednoduchých modelech ===== | ||
+ | **[[simplealt|]]** | ||
+ | * Rozšířená a aktualizované verze části mé disertační práce. | ||
+ | * Obsahuje teoretickou část ([[simplealt# | ||
+ | </ | ||
+ | \\ | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Další zdroje ===== | ||
+ | <WRAP box> | ||
+ | https:// | ||
+ | \\ \\ | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Hesla ===== | ||
+ | Přílišné zjednodušení // | ||
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+ | {{ : | ||
+ | \\ \\ | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===== Citáty z odborné literatury týkající se jednoduchosti a komplexnosti modelů ===== | ||
+ | “Jamieson (2000) pointed out that scientists live in a highly competitive environment where funding for research is limited. Involvement in policy-modeling projects helps scientists present themselves as real-world problem solvers, which helps secure funding for their scientific pursuits.” (Clement 2011, s. 626) | ||
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+ | “The simulation results can be used to construct reasonable qualitative arguments as to why certain processes or events can or cannot occur. However, it is important that we understand the limits of these tools and recognize that they are better viewed as computer-aided thinking tools rather than computer-aided prediction tools.” (Clement 2011, s. 627) | ||
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+ | “In summary, ‘hydrogeologic science’ is not well suited to quantitative prediction and is best suited to providing hydrogeologists with theoretical and science-based intuition that they can apply when suggesting solutions to complex practical problems. Hydrogeologists are faced with being primarily descriptive scientists rather than quantitative scientists, and can employ quantification only to the extent they ‘believe’ is meaningful and useful. Some hydrogeologic problems cannot be solved – they are too complex. This must be admitted and efforts should rather be applied to solvable problems. It should be a major role of hydrogeologists to help managers define the practical questions that are possible to answer.” (Voss 2005, | ||
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+ | “There is a direct correlation between the power of personal computers (PCs) and the complexity of models. The question is: Has the added complexity increased the level of groundwater understanding? | ||
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+ | “Oreskes (2003) noted that we tend to have more intuitive faith in complex models because they allow us to simulate more processes. However, as we add more processes (and parameters) to a model, the overall certainty of its predictions might decrease. Ironically, the “truer’ the model, the more difficult it is to show that it is “true’.” (Clement 2011, s. 625) | ||
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+ | “Freyberg (1988) noted that in a modeling class he taught, predicted system response was better simulated with more parsimonious but less well-calibrated models than with models calibrated using a large number of parameters to obtain a good fit (a phenomenon often referred to as ‘point calibration’).” (Hunt et al. 2007, s. 254) | ||
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+ | “Models lie and liars model.” | ||
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+ | “Bredehoeft’s statement, ‘For me the model is not an end in itself, but rather a powerful tool that organizes my thinking and my engineering judgment, | ||
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+ | “[Groundwater models] … are tools that are of great value in helping us test alternate hypotheses and behavioral possibilities. If the possibilities are well constrained with data, we treat them as predictions […] The real value of the models is that they give a quantitative form to what we know qualitatively. In some cases, model output may reveal certain patterns we did not expect a priori. These “anomalies” occasionally help us comprehend the existence of unusual phenomena.” (Narasimhan 2010) | ||
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+ | “Leavesley et al. (2002) proposed a new modelling paradigm: ‘this concept requires that we change the question of ‘which model is most appropriate for a specific set of criteria? | ||
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+ | “Wolfram feels that science is far too ad hoc, in part because the models used are too complicated and/or unnecessarily organized around the limited primitives of traditional mathematics. Wolfram advocates using models whose variations are enumerable and whose consequences are straightforward to compute and analyze.” [[wp>A New Kind of Science]] | ||
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+ | “Booch et al. defined a model: ‘simplification of reality created to better understand the system being created’.” | ||
+ | “Modeling should constitute a scientific expression of our ignorance rather than a claim to knowledge that we do not possess.” (Doherty 2011, s. 455) | ||
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+ | “So why do we not embrace models as tools for encapsulating our knowledge and quantifying our ignorance? One reason is that human beings have always wanted to ‘see’ the future as if the veil of time were lifted. In pursuing his time-honored endeavor, complex models are the current prophetic tool of choice.” (Doherty 2011, s. 455) | ||
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+ | “Simple models, on the other hand, are fast and stable—and they can dance.” (Doherty 2011, s. 455) | ||
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+ | “However, all too often complexity wins the day—often for no other reason than to preemptively circumvent criticism that the model does not ‘look like’ what we imagine reality to look like.” (Doherty 2011, s. 455) | ||
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+ | “Fools ignore complexity. Pragmatists suffer it. Some can avoid it. Geniuses remove it. …Simplicity does not precede complexity, but follows it. … In seeking the unattainable, | ||
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+ | “//Il semble que la perfection soit atteinte non quand il n’y a plus rien a ajouter, mais quand il n’ y a plus rien a retrancher.// | ||
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+ | “Simplicity is the final achievement. After one has played a vast quantity of notes and more notes, it is simplicity that emerges as the crowning reward of art. (Frédéric Chopin, a musician and composer, quoted in If Not God, Then What? by Fost 2007)” (Voss 2011b, | ||
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+ | “Managers need to be educated regarding what model analysis can and cannot provide. The model should generally not be what is contracted as a product, as is most often the case today; rather, an improvement of understanding of the system in question should be contracted, and particular advice sought from the analyst, who may or may not choose to employ groundwater modeling toward achieving this goal. Managers should buy advice from a competent hydrogeologist; | ||
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+ | “The methods of science depend on our attempts to describe the world with simple theories. Theories that are complex become unstable, even if they happen to be true. Science may be described as the art of over-simplification: | ||
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+ | “If you can't reduce a difficult engineering problem to just one 81×11-inch sheet of paper, you will probably never understand it. (Ralph Brazelton Peck, a soil mechanics engineer, quoted in DiBiagio and Flaate 2000).” (Voss 2011a, | ||
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+ | “Models are to be used, not to be believed in! Dooge (1972)” Citováno podle Ebel a Loague (2006, s. 2887) | ||
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+ | “Our models should be designed expressly to maximize the possibility of discovering that of which we are ignorant. Beck (2002)” Citováno podle: (Ebel a Loague 2006, s. 2887) | ||
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+ | “Kirkby (1996): Models are thought experiments which help refine our understanding of the dominant processes acting ... While most simulation models may be used in a forecasting mode, the most important role of models is as a qualitative thought experiment, testing whether we have a sufficient and consistent theoretical explanation of physical processes. The best model can only provide a possible explanation which is more consistent with known data than its current rivals. Every field observation, | ||
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+ | “... application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction.” (Beven 1993, s. 41) | ||
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+ | “... looking for more hydrological understanding through detailed distributed modelling is a dead-end track ...” (Savenije 2001, | ||
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+ | “The fact that [the model] is an approximation does not necessarily detract from its usefulness because models are approximations. All models are wrong, but some are useful.“ (Box a Draper 1987, s. 424) – citováno podle Bakkera (2013, s. 313). | ||
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+ | “…simple models are a good place to start because their transparent features provide clarity. A simple model is something to build on. In its sleek lines and limited assumptions, | ||
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+ | Engineering models must compromise between simplicity and realism. “The best solution emphasizes the former without undue violence to the latter”. (DiToro 2001) | ||
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+ | You know my methods, Watson. There was not one of them which I did not apply to the inquiry. And it ended by my discovering traces, but very different ones from those which I had expected.” – Sherlock Holmes in “The Crooked Man”, The Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes (1893, Doubleday p. 416). | ||
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+ | Moudrý muž je víc než silák, rozumný člověk je víc než mocný; proto veď válku se strategií, záchrana je v množství rádců. [[https:// | ||
+ | === Citovaná literatura === | ||
+ | BAKKER, Mark, 2013. Are all models wrong? Absolutely not. // | ||
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+ | BEVEN, Keith, 1993. Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. //Advances in Water Resources// | ||
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+ | BRANGER, F., I. BRAUD, S. DEBIONNE, P. VIALLET, J. DEHOTIN, H. HENINE, Y. NEDELEC a S. ANQUETIN, 2010. Towards multi-scale integrated hydrological models using the LIQUID® framework. Overview of the concepts and first application examples. // | ||
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+ | BREDEHOEFT, John, 2010. Models and model analysis. //Ground Water//. **48**(3), 328–328. [[doi> | ||
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+ | CLEMENT, T. Prabhakar, 2011. Complexities in hindcasting models-when should we say enough is enough? //Ground Water//. **49**(5), 620–629. ISSN 1745-6584. [[doi> | ||
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+ | DITORO, Dominic M., 2001. //Sediment Flux Modeling//. New York: Wiley-Interscience. ISBN 978-0-471-13535-7. | ||
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+ | DOHERTY, John, 2011. Modeling: Picture perfect or abstract art? //Ground Water//. **49**(4), 455. ISSN 1745-6584. [[doi> | ||
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+ | EBEL, Brian A. a Keith LOAGUE, 2006. Physics-based hydrologic-response simulation: Seeing through the fog of equifinality. // | ||
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+ | FATICHI, Simone, Enrique R. VIVONI, Fred L. OGDEN, Valeriy Y. IVANOV, Benjamin MIRUS, David GOCHIS, Charles W. DOWNER, Matteo CAMPORESE, Jason H. DAVISON, Brian EBEL, Norm JONES, Jongho KIM, Giuseppe MASCARO, Richard NISWONGER, Pedro RESTREPO, Riccardo RIGON, Chaopeng SHEN, Mauro SULIS a David TARBOTON, 2016. An overview of current applications, | ||
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+ | HILL, Mary C. a Claire R. TIEDEMAN, 2007. //Effective groundwater model calibration?: | ||
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+ | HUNT, Randall J., John DOHERTY a Matthew J. TONKIN, 2007. Are models too simple? Arguments for increased parameterization. //Ground Water//. **45**(3), 254–262. [[doi> | ||
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+ | LEVIN, Simon, 2007. //Fragile Dominion//. Basic Books. ISBN 978-0-465-01073-8. | ||
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+ | NARASIMHAN, T. N., 2005. Hydrogeology in North America: past and future. // | ||
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+ | NARASIMHAN, T. N., 2010. Comment on guest editorial: " | ||
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+ | PERLIS, Alan J., 1982. Epigrams on programming. //SIGPLAN Notices//. **17**(9), 7–13. ISSN 0362-1340. [[doi> | ||
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+ | SAVENIJE, Hubert H. G., 2001. Equifinality, | ||
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+ | VOSS, Clifford I., 2005. The future of hydrogeology. // | ||
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+ | VOSS, Clifford I., 2011a. Editor' | ||
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+ | VOSS, Clifford I., 2011b. Editor' | ||
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+ | \\ | ||
+ | === O dobré praxi v modelování – více přiměřeně komplexních modelů === | ||
+ | < |