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cs:simple [2019-07-06]
cs:simple [2020-03-09] (aktuální)
Kamil Nešetřil [Alternativní jednoduché modely]
Řádek 2: Řádek 2:
 ... a o matematických modelech obecně ... a o matematických modelech obecně
  
-> HgIS pomáhá formulovat alternativní koncepční modely a umožňuje implementovat jednoduché procedurální (tj. výpočetní) modely. Prezentované [[cs:​casestudies|]] je možné implementovat ​v HgIS jejich výsledky lze zobrazovat v\_online aplikaci, přičemž se výsledky aktualizují na základě nových dat. +> HgIS pomáhá formulovat alternativní koncepční modely a umožňuje implementovat jednoduché procedurální (tj. výpočetní) modely. Prezentované [[cs:​casestudies|]] je možné implementovat a zobrazovat v HgIS, přičemž se výsledky aktualizují na základě nových dat. 
 > Navíc platforma Pentaho umožňuje((plugin [[https://​community.hitachivantara.com/​community/​products-and-solutions/​pentaho/​blog/​2018/​03/​06/​operationalizing-machine-learning|Machine Intelligence]])) spustit model založený na datech (např. neuronovou síť) s využitím různých implementací:​ R, Python, Weka a Deeplearning4j. > Navíc platforma Pentaho umožňuje((plugin [[https://​community.hitachivantara.com/​community/​products-and-solutions/​pentaho/​blog/​2018/​03/​06/​operationalizing-machine-learning|Machine Intelligence]])) spustit model založený na datech (např. neuronovou síť) s využitím různých implementací:​ R, Python, Weka a Deeplearning4j.
  
Řádek 11: Řádek 11:
   * Obsahuje teoretickou část ([[cs:​simplealt#​formulace_zvoleneho_pristupu|zde její klíčová část]]) i praktické příklady ([[cs:​casestudies|]]).   * Obsahuje teoretickou část ([[cs:​simplealt#​formulace_zvoleneho_pristupu|zde její klíčová část]]) i praktické příklady ([[cs:​casestudies|]]).
 </​WRAP>​ </​WRAP>​
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 ===== Další zdroje ===== ===== Další zdroje =====
 +<WRAP box>​**[[cs:​clip|Jednodušší vizalizace je lepší vizualizace (a pár vtípků)]]**</​WRAP>​
 https://​darcylecture2016.wordpress.com/​2015/​08/​21/​references/​ https://​darcylecture2016.wordpress.com/​2015/​08/​21/​references/​
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 ===== Hesla ===== ===== Hesla =====
Řádek 18: Řádek 22:
  
 {{:​spot_the_cow.gif?​direct|Spherical cow}} {{:​spot_the_cow.gif?​direct|Spherical cow}}
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-Model není výsledek sám o sobě: +
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-[[https://​www.sciencedirect.com/​science/​article/​pii/​S1364815212001831#​fig4 +
-|{{:​pyramida.jpg?​nolink|Knowledge and information systems hierarchy }}]] +
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-Obrázek: Knowledge and information systems hierarchy ((VON ASMUTH, Jos R., Kees MAAS, Martin KNOTTERS, Marc F.P. BIERKENS, Mark BAKKER, Theo N. OLSTHOORN, D. Gijsbert CIRKEL, Inke LEUNK, Frans SCHAARS a Daniel C. VON ASMUTH, 2012. Software for hydrogeologic time series analysis, interfacing data with physical insight. //​Environmental Modelling & Software//. 38, 178–190. ISSN 1364-8152. doi:​[[https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.envsoft.2012.06.003|10.1016/​j.envsoft.2012.06.003]])) +
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-{{ :​cs:​dilbert_3.jpg?​direct |}} +
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-{{ :​cs:​dilbert_4.jpg?​direct |}} +
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-{{ :​cs:​modely_nezklamaly_zklamala_krajina.png?​direct |}} +
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 ===== Citáty z odborné literatury týkající se jednoduchosti a komplexnosti modelů ===== ===== Citáty z odborné literatury týkající se jednoduchosti a komplexnosti modelů =====
Řádek 99: Řádek 85:
  
 “…simple models are a good place to start because their transparent features provide clarity. A simple model is something to build on. In its sleek lines and limited assumptions,​ it can provide a base for elaboration while capturing the essence of a variety of more detailed possible explanations.” Levin (2007), citováno podle Fatichi et al. (2016). “…simple models are a good place to start because their transparent features provide clarity. A simple model is something to build on. In its sleek lines and limited assumptions,​ it can provide a base for elaboration while capturing the essence of a variety of more detailed possible explanations.” Levin (2007), citováno podle Fatichi et al. (2016).
 +
 +Engineering models must compromise between simplicity and realism. “The best solution emphasizes the former without undue violence to the latter”. (DiToro 2001)
  
 You know my methods, Watson. There was not one of them which I did not apply to the inquiry. And it ended by my discovering traces, but very different ones from those which I had expected.” – Sherlock Holmes in “The Crooked Man”, The Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes (1893, Doubleday p. 416). You know my methods, Watson. There was not one of them which I did not apply to the inquiry. And it ended by my discovering traces, but very different ones from those which I had expected.” – Sherlock Holmes in “The Crooked Man”, The Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes (1893, Doubleday p. 416).
Řádek 104: Řádek 92:
 Moudrý muž je víc než silák, rozumný člověk je víc než mocný; proto veď válku se strategií, záchrana je v množství rádců. [[http://​www.obohu.cz/​bible/​index.php?​csp_poznamky=ano&​k=Pr&​styl=CSP&​kap=24&​v=6&​kv=6#​v6|Bible:​ Přísloví 24:​5–6]] ​ Moudrý muž je víc než silák, rozumný člověk je víc než mocný; proto veď válku se strategií, záchrana je v množství rádců. [[http://​www.obohu.cz/​bible/​index.php?​csp_poznamky=ano&​k=Pr&​styl=CSP&​kap=24&​v=6&​kv=6#​v6|Bible:​ Přísloví 24:​5–6]] ​
 === Citovaná literatura === === Citovaná literatura ===
 +BAKKER, Mark, 2013. Are all models wrong? Absolutely not. //​Groundwater//​. **51**(3), 313. ISSN 1745-6584. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/​gwat.12037|10.1111/​gwat.12037]]
 +
 +BEVEN, Keith, 1993. Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. //Advances in Water Resources//​. **16**(1), 41–51. ISSN 0309-1708. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​0309-1708(93)90028-E|10.1016/​0309-1708(93)90028-E]]
 +
 +BRANGER, F., I. BRAUD, S. DEBIONNE, P. VIALLET, J. DEHOTIN, H. HENINE, Y. NEDELEC a S. ANQUETIN, 2010. Towards multi-scale integrated hydrological models using the LIQUID® framework. Overview of the concepts and first application examples. //​Environmental Modelling & Software//. **25**(12), 1672–1681. ISSN 1364-8152. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.envsoft.2010.06.005|10.1016/​j.envsoft.2010.06.005]]
 +
 +BREDEHOEFT, John, 2010. Models and model analysis. //Ground Water//. **48**(3), 328–328. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2009.00631.x|10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2009.00631.x]]
 +
 CLEMENT, T. Prabhakar, 2011. Complexities in hindcasting models-when should we say enough is enough? //Ground Water//. **49**(5), 620–629. ISSN 1745-6584. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2010.00765.x|10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2010.00765.x]] CLEMENT, T. Prabhakar, 2011. Complexities in hindcasting models-when should we say enough is enough? //Ground Water//. **49**(5), 620–629. ISSN 1745-6584. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2010.00765.x|10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2010.00765.x]]
  
-VOSSClifford I., 2005The future of hydrogeology//​Hydrogeology Journal//**13**(1), 1–6. ISSN 1431-2174, 1435-0157. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1007/​s10040-005-0435-8|10.1007/​s10040-005-0435-8]]+DITORODominic M., 2001Sediment Flux ModelingNew York: Wiley-InterscienceISBN 978-0-471-13535-7
  
-VOSSClifford I.2011aEditor'​s messageGroundwater modeling fantasies -part 1, adrift in the details. ​//Hydrogeology Journal//. **19**(7), 1281-1284. ISSN 1431-2174, 1435-0157. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1007/s10040-011-0789-z|10.1007/s10040-011-0789-z]]+DOHERTYJohn2011ModelingPicture perfect or abstract art? //Ground Water//. **49**(4), 455. ISSN 1745-6584. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/j.1745-6584.2011.00812.x|10.1111/j.1745-6584.2011.00812.x]]
  
-VOSSClifford I., 2011bEditor'​s message: Groundwater modeling fantasies-part 2, down to earth. //Hydrogeology Journal//. **19**(8), 14551458. ISSN 1431-2174, 1435-0157. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1007/s10040-011-0790-6|10.1007/s10040-011-0790-6]]+EBELBrian Aa Keith LOAGUE2006Physics-based hydrologic-response simulation: Seeing through the fog of equifinality. //Hydrological Processes//. **20**(13), 28872900. ISSN 1099-1085. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1002/hyp.6388|10.1002/hyp.6388]]
  
-BREDEHOEFTJohn2010Models ​and model analysis. //Ground Water//. **48**(3)328328. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00631.x|10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00631.x]]+FATICHISimoneEnrique RVIVONI, Fred L. OGDEN, Valeriy Y. IVANOV, Benjamin MIRUS, David GOCHIS, Charles W. DOWNER, Matteo CAMPORESE, Jason H. DAVISON, Brian EBEL, Norm JONES, Jongho KIM, Giuseppe MASCARO, Richard NISWONGER, Pedro RESTREPO, Riccardo RIGON, Chaopeng SHEN, Mauro SULIS a David TARBOTON, 2016. An overview of current applications,​ challenges, ​and future trends in distributed process-based models in hydrology. //Journal of Hydrology//. **537**, 4560. ISSN 0022-1694. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.026|10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.026]] 
 + 
 +HILL, Mary C. a Claire R. TIEDEMAN, 2007. //Effective groundwater model calibration?:​ with analysis of data, sensitivities,​ predictions,​ and uncertainty//​. Hoboken N.J.: Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-77636-9. ​
  
 HUNT, Randall J., John DOHERTY a Matthew J. TONKIN, 2007. Are models too simple? Arguments for increased parameterization. //Ground Water//. **45**(3), 254–262. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2007.00316.x|10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2007.00316.x]] HUNT, Randall J., John DOHERTY a Matthew J. TONKIN, 2007. Are models too simple? Arguments for increased parameterization. //Ground Water//. **45**(3), 254–262. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2007.00316.x|10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2007.00316.x]]
 +
 +LEVIN, Simon, 2007. //Fragile Dominion//. Basic Books. ISBN 978-0-465-01073-8.
  
 NARASIMHAN, T. N., 2005. Hydrogeology in North America: past and future. //​Hydrogeology Journal//. **13**(1), 7–24. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1007/​s10040-004-0422-5|10.1007/​s10040-004-0422-5]] NARASIMHAN, T. N., 2005. Hydrogeology in North America: past and future. //​Hydrogeology Journal//. **13**(1), 7–24. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1007/​s10040-004-0422-5|10.1007/​s10040-004-0422-5]]
  
 NARASIMHAN, T. N., 2010. Comment on guest editorial: "​Models and model analysis"​. //Ground Water//. **48**(6), 785–785. ISSN 1745-6584. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2010.00731.x|10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2010.00731.x]] NARASIMHAN, T. N., 2010. Comment on guest editorial: "​Models and model analysis"​. //Ground Water//. **48**(6), 785–785. ISSN 1745-6584. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2010.00731.x|10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2010.00731.x]]
- 
-BRANGER, F., I. BRAUD, S. DEBIONNE, P. VIALLET, J. DEHOTIN, H. HENINE, Y. NEDELEC a S. ANQUETIN, 2010. Towards multi-scale integrated hydrological models using the LIQUID® framework. Overview of the concepts and first application examples. //​Environmental Modelling & Software//. **25**(12), 1672–1681. ISSN 1364-8152. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​j.envsoft.2010.06.005|10.1016/​j.envsoft.2010.06.005]] 
- 
-DOHERTY, John, 2011. Modeling: Picture perfect or abstract art? //Ground Water//. **49**(4), 455. ISSN 1745-6584. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2011.00812.x|10.1111/​j.1745-6584.2011.00812.x]] 
  
 PERLIS, Alan J., 1982. Epigrams on programming. //SIGPLAN Notices//. **17**(9), 7–13. ISSN 0362-1340. DOI: [[https://​dl.acm.org/​citation.cfm?​doid=947955.1083808|10.1145/​947955.1083808]] PERLIS, Alan J., 1982. Epigrams on programming. //SIGPLAN Notices//. **17**(9), 7–13. ISSN 0362-1340. DOI: [[https://​dl.acm.org/​citation.cfm?​doid=947955.1083808|10.1145/​947955.1083808]]
- 
-HILL, Mary C. a Claire R. TIEDEMAN, 2007. //Effective groundwater model calibration?:​ with analysis of data, sensitivities,​ predictions,​ and uncertainty//​. Hoboken N.J.: Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-77636-9. ​ 
- 
-EBEL, Brian A. a Keith LOAGUE, 2006. Physics-based hydrologic-response simulation: Seeing through the fog of equifinality. //​Hydrological Processes//​. **20**(13), 2887–2900. ISSN 1099-1085. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1002/​hyp.6388|10.1002/​hyp.6388]] 
- 
-BEVEN, Keith, 1993. Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. //Advances in Water Resources//​. **16**(1), 41–51. ISSN 0309-1708. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1016/​0309-1708(93)90028-E|10.1016/​0309-1708(93)90028-E]] 
  
 SAVENIJE, Hubert H. G., 2001. Equifinality,​ a blessing in disguise? //​Hydrological Processes//​. **15**(14), 2835–2838. ISSN 1099-1085. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1002/​hyp.494|10.1002/​hyp.494]] SAVENIJE, Hubert H. G., 2001. Equifinality,​ a blessing in disguise? //​Hydrological Processes//​. **15**(14), 2835–2838. ISSN 1099-1085. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1002/​hyp.494|10.1002/​hyp.494]]
  
-BAKKERMark2013Are all models wrong? Absolutely not. //Groundwater//. **51**(3), 313. ISSN 1745-6584. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1111/gwat.12037|10.1111/gwat.12037]]+VOSSClifford I.2005The future of hydrogeology. //Hydrogeology Journal//. **13**(1), 1–6. ISSN 1431-2174, 1435-0157. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1007/s10040-005-0435-8|10.1007/s10040-005-0435-8]]
  
-FATICHISimone, Enrique RVIVONIFred LOGDEN, Valeriy Y. IVANOV, Benjamin MIRUS, David GOCHIS, Charles W. DOWNER, Matteo CAMPORESE, Jason H. DAVISON, Brian EBEL, Norm JONES, Jongho KIM, Giuseppe MASCARO, Richard NISWONGER, Pedro RESTREPO, Riccardo RIGON, Chaopeng SHEN, Mauro SULIS a David TARBOTON, 2016. An overview of current applications,​ challengesand future trends ​in distributed process-based models in hydrology. //​Journal ​of Hydrology//. **537**, 45–60. ISSN 0022-1694. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.026|10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.026]]+VOSSClifford I., 2011aEditor'​s message: Groundwater modeling fantasies -part 1adrift ​in the details. //Hydrogeology ​Journal//. **19**(7)1281-1284. ISSN 1431-2174, 1435-0157. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1007/s10040-011-0789-z|10.1007/s10040-011-0789-z]]
  
-LEVINSimon2007. //Fragile Dominion//. Basic BooksISBN 978-0-465-01073-8.+VOSSClifford I.2011b. Editor'​s message: Groundwater modeling fantasies-part 2, down to earth. //Hydrogeology Journal//. **19**(8), 1455–1458ISSN 1431-2174, 1435-0157. DOI: [[https://​doi.org/​10.1007/​s10040-011-0790-6|10.1007/​s10040-011-0790-6]]
  
 +\\ 
 +=== O dobré praxi v modelování – více přiměřeně komplexních modelů ===
 +<​html><​iframe width="​560"​ height="​315"​ src="​https://​www.youtube.com/​embed/​Gb_bx6Ui3vA"​ frameborder="​0"​ allow="​accelerometer;​ autoplay; encrypted-media;​ gyroscope; picture-in-picture"​ allowfullscreen></​iframe></​html>​
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